Description
Split air conditioner market Germany: outdoor units in thousand units and forecast to 2031
How is the split air conditioner market in Germany developing? The dataset measures sales of split and multi-split air conditioners, counted as outdoor units, in thousand units – every quarter from Q1/2021 to Q4/2031 as historical market data and forecast.
A split air conditioner combines an outdoor unit with compressor and one or more indoor units – wall-mounted, console or ceiling cassette – linked by a refrigerant line. The system cools in summer and heats in reverse mode, hence the term air-to-air heat pump; room air is recirculated, not exchanged. Excluded are variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems, portable units, chilled-water systems with fan coils, air handling units and surface cooling.
Unlike most building products, demand barely follows construction but tracks weather, energy prices and funding: after a pandemic-summer peak with home working and heat, sales fell for several years and are now recovering. High energy prices shifted use towards heating, a shift sustained by the Federal Funding for Efficient Buildings (BEG) for air-to-air heat pumps. More hot days are the main long-term driver. From 2027 the EU F-Gas Regulation tightens refrigerant rules up to 12 kW; as the circuit sits mainly outdoors, propane is workable and only dampens sales slightly.
Which questions about the split air conditioner market does the dataset answer?
- How did sales evolve from Q1/2021, and what growth does the forecast show up to Q4/2031?
- What share comes from retrofits, what share from new buildings?
- How is demand split between residential and non-residential buildings?
- Which seasonal pattern do quarterly values show?
Who is the dataset for?
Makers and importers of room air conditioners and suppliers of refrigerant and mounting accessories plan volumes. Contractors anticipate seasonal peaks; facility managers, property owners, energy consultants and analysts assess cooling and heating needs.
Data basis and methodology
Figures are split by new build versus renovation and by building type, with a total; retrofits in existing stock dominate. The model combines completions, permits and modernisation activity with dwellings and usage units per floor area, one outdoor unit per equipped unit and equipment rates far higher in commercial than in housing stock. Official statistics, industry association figures and internal data served as benchmarks.
Delivered as CSV and Excel files, each in German and English, with 44 quarterly values. Related datasets: Chiller (chilled water unit), Heat pump air-water (split), Decentralised ventilation (single-room units) and all data on heating, ventilation, air conditioning and energy.
