Description
Rooftop solar market Germany: pitched-roof installations and forecast to 2031
How is the rooftop solar market in Germany developing? This dataset provides newly installed capacity of on-roof photovoltaic (PV) modules on pitched roofs in MWp (megawatt peak) for every quarter from Q1/2021 to Q4/2031 – as historical market data and forecast.
With on-roof mounting, modules are fixed above the existing roof covering with roof hooks and rails. This is the standard solution for houses, multi-family buildings with gable roofs, farm buildings and pitched hall roofs, mostly residential. Flat-roof, building-integrated and ground-mounted systems as well as plug-in solar devices are not included.
Retrofitting existing roofs drives the market. New construction contributes a smaller but growing share, supported by the solar obligations of the federal states and the EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD). After the boom triggered by the energy price crisis, higher remuneration under the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) and the VAT exemption for small systems, demand has normalised. Feed-in tariff reform, electricity prices, battery storage and falling system costs will shape the coming years.
Which questions about the rooftop solar market does the dataset answer?
- How much PV capacity will be installed on pitched roofs until 2031 – in total and per construction segment?
- How much do retrofits contribute compared with new construction?
- How far do installations fall until 2027, and when does growth resume?
- How does the share of new buildings in pitched-roof installations develop to 2031?
Who is the dataset for?
The dataset is aimed at module manufacturers and importers, suppliers of mounting systems, inverters and batteries, solar wholesalers, installers, roofers and energy suppliers as well as investors, market analysts and consultants. It supports sales planning, market potential analyses and comparison with in-house capacity planning.
Data basis and methodology
The values are broken down by new construction and renovation (retrofitting) as well as residential and non-residential buildings and are also available as a total market. The forecast is based on a model of building completions, modernisation activity, module capacity per m² of floor area, equipment rates and retrofit rates. The plausibility of the time series was checked against official and industry association statistics as well as internal data.
Delivered as CSV and Excel files, each in German and English, with 44 quarterly values. Related datasets: PV module flat roof, PV mounting system (pitched and flat roof), PV inverter (string/hybrid) and all data on heating, ventilation, air conditioning and energy.
