Description
Heat pump market Germany: monoblock sales and forecast to 2031
How is the heat pump market in Germany developing? This dataset provides sales of air-to-water heat pumps in monoblock design in thousand units for every quarter from Q1/2021 to Q4/2031 – as historical market data and forecast.
In a monoblock heat pump, the entire refrigerant circuit sits in a single unit installed outdoors. Only the heating water pipe enters the building, so no certified refrigeration technician is needed for installation. This also allows the safe use of the natural refrigerant propane (R290). That becomes decisive from 2027: under the EU F-gas Regulation 2024/573, new air-to-water heat pumps up to 12 kW may then no longer contain fluorinated refrigerants with a global warming potential of 150 or more. Monoblock units are already by far the most important design among air-to-water heat pumps.
Demand comes mainly from the existing building stock: according to the German Heat Pump Association (BWP), around eight out of ten heat pumps installed in 2025 went into existing buildings, mostly replacing a gas or oil boiler. Subsidies, the German Buildings Energy Act (GEG) and electricity prices therefore cause strong fluctuations in sales: a record year in 2023, a slump in 2024 and a recovery in 2025. The dataset shows how new construction and heating system replacement will develop until 2031.
Which questions about the heat pump market does the dataset answer?
- How many monoblock heat pumps will be sold in Germany until 2031 – in total and per construction segment?
- How is demand split between new construction and renovation, residential and non-residential buildings?
- How do sales develop from quarter to quarter?
- How can your own sales and capacity planning be aligned with market development?
Who is the dataset for?
The dataset is aimed at manufacturers of heat pumps and components such as compressors, heat exchangers and storage tanks, at wholesalers and heating installers, at energy suppliers as well as at investors, market analysts and management consultants. It supports sales planning, market potential analyses and budgeting as well as location and capacity decisions.
Data basis and methodology
The values are broken down by new construction and renovation as well as residential and non-residential buildings and are also available as a total market. The forecast is based on a model of building completions, building permits, heating system replacement and the heat pump share in it. It was validated against the joint sales statistics of the German Heating Industry Association (BDH) and the BWP as well as the heat pump share in official building completion statistics.
Delivered as CSV and Excel files, each in German and English, with 44 quarterly values. Related datasets: Heat pump air-water (split), Heat pump geothermal (brine-water / water-water), Hot water heat pump and all data on heating, ventilation, air conditioning and energy.
