Description
Chiller market Germany: cooling capacity in MW and forecast to 2031
How is the chiller market in Germany developing? The dataset expresses demand for chillers (chilled water units) as installed cooling capacity in MW, resolved into each quarter from Q1/2021 to Q4/2031 – as historical market data and forecast.
Chillers produce chilled water centrally and pipe it to chilled ceilings, fan coil units, ventilation systems or data centre coolers. Air-cooled, water-cooled and reversible units that cool and heat are covered. As capacities range from a few kilowatts into the megawatt range, the industry-standard cooling capacity replaces unit counts. Not covered are variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems and split or room air conditioners.
Chillers serve almost exclusively offices, retail, hotels, hospitals and data centres; homes are rarely cooled centrally. Replacement in the large installed base accounts for most demand. Growth comes from data centres, possibly dampened by free cooling, from cooling needs driven by hot summers and occupational safety, and from older systems whose refrigerants are getting dearer. From 2027 the EU F-Gas Regulation 2024/573 caps refrigerant global warming potential in new units; ranges have already switched, so technology and price change rather than volume.
Which questions about the chiller market does the dataset answer?
- How much capacity per quarter goes into new buildings and how much into replacement?
- How strongly does installed capacity grow by Q4/2031?
- How much weight do non-residential buildings carry?
- How does the quarterly pattern fit in-house capacity planning?
Who is the dataset for?
Chiller and compressor manufacturers and suppliers of chilled ceilings and fan coil units plan capacity. Refrigeration contractors and building services engineers estimate project volumes, while operators of data centres and commercial property plan investment. Analysts use the series to track cooling in non-residential construction.
Data basis and methodology
The breakdown covers new and existing buildings, residential and non-residential, plus a total, with commercial buildings dominating. From completions, permits and modernisation activity the model derives floor area, applies a typical cooling load per square metre and the share of space cooled by chillers; in the stock, service life drives replacement. Volumes were derived from stock, equipment and renewal parameters and checked for plausibility against available industry information and internal data.
Delivered as CSV and Excel files, each in German and English, with 44 quarterly values. Related datasets: Split air conditioner / air-air heat pump, PV module flat roof, Commercial battery storage and all data on heating, ventilation, air conditioning and energy.
